Прогнозування прибутку підприємства на основі методу екстраполяції

Abstract

Наголошено, що за умов фінансової нестабільності в Україні гостро постають питання, пов’язані зі забезпеченням високих фінансових результатів діяльності підприємств. Описано один із інструментів такого забезпечення – фінансове прогнозування прибутку. Узагальнено методи прогнозування фінансових результатів суб’єктів господарювання, а також з’ясовано їхні переваги та недоліки. Прогнозування прибутку підприємства репрезентовано на прикладі методу екстраполяції. Due to the financial instability in Ukraine the high company results providin giscrucial. The financial forecasting ofprofit is one ofthe tools used to provide the seresults. The article summarizes the methods of financial results forecasting of business entities, as well as their advantages and disadvantages. The company profit forecasting is realized using the extrapolation method. The company revenue planning is key to business development. The literature provides a number of methods for financial results planning of enterprises, but the peculiarities oftheir application (in particular the method of extrapolation) require further in-depth study. In a rapidly changing economic situation in Ukraine the risks of economic activity are increasing which requires a rapid response from the company management. In order to maintain a stable financial position of a business entity and ensure a high financial performance in a competitive environment, the use offinancial planning is important, inparticular, through the method of extrapolation. The article highlights the advantages and disadvantages of this method as well as the possibilities ofits application in the practical activity ofbusiness entities. The method of extrapolation consists in the application of such a function for the construction of which all observation of a certain time period is given a onedimensional weight. The purpose of the forecast by extrapolation method is to show what results can be achieved in the future If you move to it at the same speed or acceleration as in the past. The forecast determines the expected options for forecast development based on the hypothesis that the main factors and trends of the past period will remain for the forecast period or can be substantiated and take into account the direction of their changes in the considered perspective. The main advantage of the method of trend extrapolation consists in the fact that it is based on digital data and not on the expert’s opinion. It is characterized by a high degree of development of the methodical apparatus, relatively simple tooling research, the speed of calculations in the operational mode of time. The indicated method can be effectively applied in financial results forecasting of the enterprise, especially for a short period. Long-term forecasting requires a great deal of data history. However, the main disadvantage can be that the assumption that is adopted when applying dynamics rows may be false – the future may in fact be unlike the past. That is why financial forecasts can not be performed with great accuracy as there may be many events causing a discrepancy between the reality and the forecast. Therefore expected forecas tindicators can be considered expedien tunder the constant conditions of operation of the enterprise.