Вплив вимушеної внутрішньої міграції на соціальну безпеку регіонів України

Abstract

Проведено оцінку соціальної безпеки регіонів з урахуванням концентрації внутрішньо переміщених осіб. Істотний вплив концентрації внутрішньо переміщених осіб на стан соціальної безпеки виявлений у Дніпропетровській та Донецькій областях, помірний вплив – у Запорізькій, Київській та Харківській областях, не істотний вплив – у Луганській області та м. Києві. За результатами панельної регресії виявлено прямий зв’язок між рівнем безробіття і показником концентрації внутрішньо переміщених осіб в регіоні, обернений зв’язок – між рівнем безробіття і коефіцієнтом злочинності. The prolonged hostilities in Eastern Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimea by Russia have led to the forced migration of domestic refugees to other regions of Ukraine. In the context of inefcient institutional mechanisms of state support for internally relocated persons, additional threats to the development of hosting territories in the social sphere are emerging. The problems of regional development caused by the placement of internally displaced persons in the region remain under-researched. There is no comprehensive study of the impact of internally displaced persons on the socio-economic development of the hosting regions, and the extent of internal forced migration and related problems remain unaddressed in determining the level of social security of Ukrainian regions. The purpose of the article is to determine the impact of internal forced migration on the level of social security of the regions with the highest concentration of internally displaced persons. To achieve this goal, the following research methods were used: calculation of the integral indicator of social security of the regions where the largest number of migrants is concentrated; assessment of the effect of concentration of internally displaced persons in the region on the social security of the region; regression analysis of relations between social security indicators in all regions of Ukraine in the period of 2014–2018. The assessment of the level of social security was carried out for the regions where the concentration of internally displaced persons exceeded 2% in 2018: Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Luhansk, Kharkiv and the city of Kyiv. According to the calculations, in the examined regions the level of social security increased in 2018 compared to the previous year. The signifcant impact of the indicator «Correlation between internally displaced persons and regional population» on the level of social security of the region was stated in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions, the moderate influence of this indicator was observed in Zaporizhzhya, Kyiv and Kharkiv regions, not signifcant influence prevailed in Luhansk region and in the city of Kyiv. According to the panel regression based on social security indicators of all regions of Ukraine in 2014– 2018, a direct correlation between the unemployment rate and the indicator of the concentration of internally displaced persons in the region was found, the inverse relationship was established between the unemployment rate and indicators of the internally displaced persons and crime rate.