Парадигма циклічності демографічної безпеки

Abstract

Проаналізовано розвиток питання циклічності демографічних процесів у історичному аспекті. Розглянуто особливості виявлення та розвиток циклічних коливань демографічної безпеки держави. Визначено суть циклічності демографічної безпеки. Проаналізовано внутрішні і зовнішні фактори формування циклічних коливань демографічної безпеки. Проведено паралелі фаз циклу та стану безпеки та їх вплив на показники демографічної безпеки. З’ясовано основні риси управління демографічною безпекою. The analysis of development of a question of cyclic recurrence of demographic processes in historical aspect is carried out. Features of identification and development of cyclic fluctuations of demographic safety of the state are considered. The essence of cyclic recurrence of demographic safety is defined. Internal and external factors of formation of cyclic fluctuations of demographic safety are analyzed. Parallels of phases of a cycle and security status and their influence on indicators of demographic safety are drawn. It is defined that in cyclic fluctuations each phase of a cycle has the corresponding condition of demographic safety. So, to a security status there corresponds a stabilization phase; to condition of threat there corresponds a crisis phase; to condition of danger – a recession phase; to condition of accident – a depression phase; to condition of crisis – a revival phase; to condition of risk – a lifting phase. Influence of phases of a cycle on indicators of demographic safety of the state to which are carried economic, migratory, ecological, medical, educational, criminal is considered. It is found out that realization of strategic priorities of development demands interaction of forces at regional and local levels on achievement of a common goal – a sustainable development of Ukraine. The attention that in cyclic development is of great importance overcoming of a phase of a depression is paid. Ensuring demographic safety in the phases replacing each other during cyclic fluctuations happens on the basis of management which for each of phases has the features. The main lines of management are found out by demographic safety.